Definition of perspective scheme of organization of traffic using methods of forecasting and modeling

Abstract

In the environment of highly developed urban agglomerations, one of the main problems arises - inability of the road network to reach a high level of motorization. The introduction of intelligent transport systems allows solving this problem, but the main issue in their implementation remains open: to what extent this or that method of improving the transport network will be effective and whether it is able to solve the problem of vehicle growth especially for the long-term period. The main goal of this work was the development of an approach to forecasting the increase in the intensity of traffic flow for a long-term period using the population and the level of motorization. The developed approach made it possible to determine the projected population and, taking into account the level of motorization, to determine the growth factor of the traffic flow intensity, which allows calculating the intensity value for a long-term period with high accuracy. The analysis of the main methods for predicting the characteristics of the transport stream is performed. The basic values and parameters necessary for their use are established. The analysis of the urban settlement is carried out and the level of motorization characteristic for the given locality is determined. A new approach to predicting the intensity of the traffic flow has been developed, which makes it possible to predict the change in the transport situation in the long term in high accuracy. Calculations of the magnitude of the intensity increase on the basis of the developed forecasting method are made and the errors in the data obtained are determined. The main recommendations on the use of the developed forecasting approach for the long-term functioning of the road network are formulated